Last night I ran across a cogent argument that free will was illusory. This argument was written by Jonathan Pearce in a chapter in “Christianity in the Light of Science” edited by John W. Loftus. I hope to show you how this argument doesn’t hold water.
Pearce begins with a definition of free will that he will use as there is no universally agreed upon definition:
Free will is the real, rational, and conscious ability to do otherwise in any given scenario, all things remaining equal.
I like this definition, even though I would amend it as I will explain below.
His argument is centered on an example. In his example, a woman encounters a beggar and gives him $5. Then he runs time in reverse to see if she could have done anything differently and then how and why.
He begins his argument by listing causal circumstances that could affect her decision. Here is a partial list for any given person:
a) Being born.
b) Their genetic inheritance.
c) Their life in the womb, shaping their genetic self.
d) Their time and place of birth.
e) Their parents, relatives, race, and gender; their nurture and experiences in infancy and childhood.
f) The mutations in their brain and body throughout life, and other purely random events.
g) Their natural physical stature, looks, smile, and voice; their intelligence; their sexual drive and proclivities; their personality and wit; and their natural ability in sports, music, and dance.
h) Their religious training, economic circumstances, cultural influences, political and civil rights, and the prevailing customs of their times.
i) The blizzard of experiences throughout life, not chosen by them but that happened to them. All the molecules, particles, forces, and wave functions (i.e., the environment).
The list is partial because he includes “everything in the universe at that ‘snapshot’ (in time).” This I think is ludicrous as nothing going on in the galaxy next door or even the solar system next door could conceivable have anything to do with her decision to give or not give. Plus, in decision making only a very few variables can be considered (I will explain why).
But, whatever the causes of her initial decision if we do a rewind, the entire set of causal circumstances is exactly the same. What could possibly cause a different decision?
This is a coherent and logical conclusion. Now I will show you why it is wrong.
Conscious v. Unconscious Decision Making My quibble with his original definition is the inclusion of the word “conscious.” Most decisions are not made consciously, they are made unconsciously. (Note I will use the terms unconscious and subconscious interchangeably because for the sake of this argument there is no important difference.) There is a reason for this. We have discovered that we can train ourselves to have truly prodigious memories. But if we try to keep more than one or two things in mind simultaneously we find we cannot. So, we cannot include a list of variable causes like the one above . . . consciously. Apparently we can juggle many, many variables simultaneously subconsciously, however.
Consider how you might decide which new car to buy if you did the entire process consciously. You would need paper or electronic record keeping because it cannot be done in mind per the above. You would need to list all of the important attributes this car needed to have: made by a reputable automaker, model has good reviews, gets good gas mileage, has air-conditioning, has lower insurance rates, and on and on. Then you would need to create a systems that allowed you to credit each make and model you consider on each of these aspects. Maybe one has comfy seats (needed because you make long trips) but doesn’t have air conditioning; the other has the air conditioning but doesn’t have comfy seats. So, you create a points system by which you can rate each candidate for your car buying dollars.
You reduce the candidates down to two and they have similar point scores, but one is better than the other, so . . . you buy the other because the color is really striking and it is good enough.
You see humans are fickle, humans are inconsistent. We can approach the exact same set of conditions and decide differently upon a whim. We may look at both rated as having good gas mileage but one is 26 mpg and the other 24 mpg. If we are looking for a reason to decide one way or the other we decide that 26 is really special, or meh-2 mpg doesn’t matter, no matter what the points system said. In other words, we fudge the data.
The list above is clearly something a philosopher might come up with, leaving out all of the pragmatic issues. But humans aren’t theoretical, they are more mundane. So, if the woman above decides to open her wallet for the beggar, she might do so and find she doesn’t have $5 in cash, only $1 and doesn’t want to insult the person with such a paltry gift, so she passes on the whole thing. Cash availability trumped her “determined decision.” What happened to all of the high falutin’ causal conditions listed above?
Or maybe she opens her wallet and surveys all of the cash she has and she starts to think “If I give this person $5 I know I am going to feel guilty not giving the next person $5, too and I could easily empty my wallet and not have enough money to pay for the purchases I came out to make, so she passes again.
Or she could empty her wallet because she knows there is an ATM nearby she could use to refill it. Or she could borrow $5 from her friend accompanying her on this shopping trip until she could get to an ATM, or . . . do you see my point? We don’t make decisions based upon the status of the universe at any particular point, we make decisions by choosing the parameters by which we will make decisions and those parameters are always a short list, often the choice is from what pops into our heads at the moment.
Consistent Decision-Making It is clear that most decisions we make only have flitting echoes in our conscious minds, while our subconscious minds are processing tons of information. Back when stereo systems were in vogue, I used to collect brochures, accumulate data, and dream of the ideal system I would one day assemble. Did I set up a point system? No. Did I even list all of the criteria my optimal system must meet? No. So, what was the primary causal trigger for the actual acquisition? It was that a really “cool” system was on sale for a really good price.
And because the vast majority of our decision data crunching occurs subconsciously we are not aware of what data are getting crunched, but also important how they are getting crunched. The argument above assumes that our decision making processes are consistent. Feed the same data in with the same initial conditions and you will get the same answer. Sounds like a computer to me. Are humans at all close to that behavior? Human beings are never consistent, we always chase wild hares, we always are impulsive, otherwise why do supermarkets load up their checkout lines with more stuff to buy, which they refer to as “impulse buying”? They are counting on us to buy things that were not on our shopping lists when we went to their store!
I remember a joke told by Richard Pryor about an encounter he had with a fellow prisoner who was in jail for murder. He asked the guy “Why’d you kill those people?” and the answer was “Well they was home.” That actually got a laugh (RP made appropriate faces and the follow-up line was “Thank God for prisons.”). We respond to such things because we know that the decision-making powers of human beings is far from being consistent or even very understandable.
Conclusion So, the argument that free will is an illusion is valid but based upon flawed premises. It is based upon conscious free will and we make most of our decisions subconsciously. And because those decisions are unconscious we have no idea what the data or processes are in making those conclusions. So, humans are not consistent and not deciding most things consciously, so the argument reduces to “conscious free will is an illusion” which I am comfortable with. It has no bearing at all on whether or not we ever have free will to decide things.
My personal opinion is that sometimes our decisions are caused directly by external events, a form of determinism and sometimes they are not. A good example of determinism was the now outlawed “subliminal advertising” I referred to in a recent post. The example I could remember was theaters flashing the words “Drink Coke” on the movie screen at a theater, but so quickly as to not be noticed by patrons. And Coke sales soared. In another instance, a less than noticeable amount of scent was wafted through a store (I can’t remember which, so I will use the example of the scent of fresh strawberries) and the sales of the things with that scent soared.
So, examples of determined decision making are in evidence. But so, I suggest are examples of free will being exercised.
The example I use is a decision between your two favorite ice creams at Baskin-Robbins (or one of its ilk). You really love both Butter Brickle and Chocolate Mint Chip and when your turn to be served comes up you can’t decide (we even have a term for this “on the horns of a dilemma”). Committed determinists will say whatever you decide that there was a determining cause, one that was just a shade more powerful that the other. But they are just guessing and this is more like religious thinking than scientific thinking. To believe that is to believe that our decision making powers, conscious ones at that, can detect fine shades of difference between causes. Proof of that I will need to see.
And, of course, as I taught my students, there is a proverb that says “when faced with just two choices, always take the third.” The example I was told (that has stuck with me all of these years) was of a penurious old lady shopping for groceries who asks the greengrocer “How much are the eggplants?” And he answers: “Two for 99 cents.” The lady continues “How much for just one?” The answer: “50 cents.” The lady continues: “I’ll have the other one.”
So, in the ice cream shop: “I’ll have a scoop of each in a cup please.”
When we struggle with decisions we often invent new options on the spot. (See, inconsistent!)
Mitch McConnell: Use Once, Throw Away
Tags: conservatives, corruption, hypocrisy, loyalty to Trump, Mafia Don Trump, Mitch McConnell, Moscow Mitch, politics, Republicans
If you don’t remember, it was Mitch McConnell who gave Donald Trump his most impactful political victory. Moscow Mitch it was who made up a bullshit policy that Supreme Court Justices should not be given consent by the Senate when the president is in the last year of his term of his office. We should wait for the election and “let the people decide,” he said, through our choice of the next president. So, McConnell blocked the nomination of Merrick Garland by President Obama for over a year and Trump got that appointment. But, when another seat on the Supreme Court became available in the last few months of Trump’s term in office, McConnell vacated his new rule and rushed Trump’s nominee through the process. This is how we got the “conservative” super majority on the current court, you know the court which just did The Donald a big favor in taking up his ridiculous immunity claim, thus giving him the trial delay he so dearly wanted. (Note I put conservative in quotes as a descriptor of the SCOTUS majority because it is hard to refer to them as “people who conserve” when they ride roughshod over settled precedents at their whim. Clearly they are not conservatives but radicals.)
Those two justices will give the GOP favorable rulings for decades.
So, to show how much Trump appreciated McConnell’s support, he viciously attacked him over legislation he was considering supporting (or did support in the form of the bill supporting aid to Ukraine).
To Mafia Don Trump, politicians are like toilet paper—use once, then throw away. Loyalty is “to” Trump, it doesn’t flow the other way.