Uncommon Sense

June 29, 2021

De Aliens, Boss, de Aliens!

Filed under: Reason,Science — Steve Ruis @ 8:12 am
Tags: ,

A recent post on the EarthSky.org blog (reposted from Cornell University) told about a recent sky survey. The bottom line? Well, I’ll let them tell you.

Bottom line: Scientists have calculated that 2,034 stars within 326 light-years have an opportunity to detect Earth using the transit method.

The “transit method” is how we detect “exoplanets” (there is a orientation requirement involved and I don’t know how they determined that for the study—for the curious the orientation requirement is if we are looking at the star from its north or south pole, the planets don’t transit in front of the star).

But I digress. My point is that by my rough calculation, this number of star systems is 0.000002% of the star systems in our galaxy, the Milky Way, and 0.00000000000000005% of the star systems in the visible universe.

Which is why we haven’t actually seen any aliens as yet.

Oh, and the number of star systems that can detect of radio and TV waves is smaller, since they have gotten a max of 200 light-years away from Earth.

De odds, Boss, de odds!


  1. Tsk … tsk. I can see you are a non-believer in the highly probable/possible beliefs that “we are not alone.”


    Comment by Nan — June 29, 2021 @ 10:50 am | Reply

    • I would love to have real aliens in our sights. It would then be piss or get off the pot for humanity.

      “Will the real aliens please come on down!” (If you are as long of tooth as you say, you will get the game show reference, no?”)

      Liked by 2 people

      Comment by Steve Ruis — June 29, 2021 @ 10:52 am | Reply

  2. In reference to the recently released and basically underwhelming UFO report, I’m not surprised that the possibility that some of what has been seen are pelagic life forms that have evolved in the atmosphere of gas giants was not put forth. In the hard sci fi world, where peer vetting is at least as merciless as in the science community, this possibility has been imagined for many years now, and some good stories have been written based on the idea. Just some food for thought and mental exercise.


    Comment by Jon — June 29, 2021 @ 12:38 pm | Reply

  3. Yep, the odds of another civilization stumbling over us are slim, to say the least. There are, at a conservative estimate, 100 billion stars in our galaxy alone. Then consider the distances involved. Our galaxy is about 105,000 light years across. Add in the fact that it is probably impossible for a space ship to reach even a significant fraction of the speed of light and it isn’t any wonder that we haven’t been visited. Well, if there is anyone actually out there


    Comment by grouchyfarmer — June 29, 2021 @ 10:31 pm | Reply

    • I have posted on these very points. And just because something is quite improbable doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Extremely improbable things happen daily. So belief in aliens is like faith; you believe in them even though they are unseen, because you want to.

      Liked by 1 person

      Comment by Steve Ruis — June 30, 2021 @ 9:21 am | Reply

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